A New Trade War in the Making?

I was looking at the latest U.S. tariff list and noticed something interesting—Russia is not on it. Some say that’s because trade between the U.S. and Russia is insignificant. But is it really?

I decided to check the numbers. In 2024, despite heavy sanctions, the U.S. still imported $3 billion worth of goods from Russia: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia-and-eurasia/russia

Meanwhile, imports from Ukraine—a key ally—stood at $1.186 billion, nearly three times less: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4623.html

Yet, Ukraine is now facing a new 10% tariff: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/us-reciprocal-tariffs-by-country-announced-april-2

But the real eye-opener? Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is now subject to a 10% tariff, while Kazakhstan is hit with a whopping 54%. Why such a vast difference? I won’t speculate, but the timing is remarkable—just as the Central Asia–EU Summit kicks off in Uzbekistan.

It looks like a line in the sand is being drawn. On one side, we have the countries facing U.S. tariffs. On the other side, the U.S. and the countries that somehow avoid them. Simple? Maybe. But sometimes, we don’t need to complicate things—we must look at the facts. And the fact is, this isn’t just a bureaucratic decision. These tariffs have real consequences. They shift global trade, reshape alliances, and send clear signals about who is in and who is out. So, is it just about tariffs?

I invite you to share your thoughts with me.

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